Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
