Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
